March 23, expected to be a festive moment after BTS’ comeback concert on Saturday, instead saw panic selling of HYBE shares after reports noted weaker-than-expected attendance at the group's one-hour concert in Gwanghwamun, central Seoul.

HYBE stock plunged by 15.55 percent on Monday to close at 290,500 ($194), its biggest daily drop since June 15 in 2022. It inched up on Tuesday by 0.86 percent to 293,000 won.


Despite the steep drop, analysts are calling the market reaction perplexing, pointing to the record-breaking album sales and the subsequent world tour that has a chance of being the highest-grossing of all time.

“A free outdoor performance causing a 15 percent drop in just a day is baffling and confusing, when the tour is expected to generate at least 1.5 trillion won in revenue,” Hana Securities analyst Lee Ki-hoon said in a report Tuesday.

BTS held a free promotional concert at the heart of Seoul, at Gwanghwamun Square, in Jung District, central Seoul, on Saturday evening. Being a free concert held not at a massive stadium, but in between a historic palace, the U.S. Embassy and government buildings, the Korean government took extensive measures to ensure that no safety incidents or problems would happen in the area. The government initially estimated that up to 260,000 fans would attend, and brought metal detectors and the police’s special operational unit to patrol the area.

But HYBE, following the performance, estimated that only around 100,000 people were downtown for the concert, while Seoul’s city government provided a more conservative estimate of 40,000 audience members.

“Some negative issues were raised regarding the government’s proactive measures, as they were anticipating around 260,000 people,” SK Securities analyst Park Jun-hyung said Tuesday. “But the fact that the performance ended without any issues or injuries, due to pre-emptively addressing safety risks associated with large crowds, should actually be viewed positively.”

Other analysts also echoed this view, with Shinhan Securities analyst Ji In-hae pointing out that the “excessive security measures” and the high expectations would have led to fans deciding to watch the concert on Netflix instead. In fact, “BTS: The Return” hit No. 1 in 77 countries, including the United States and Japan.

However, BTS had already proven its status and popularity through sales of its latest release, “Arirang.” The album, also released on Saturday, sold 3.98 million copies on the day of the concert, making it the band’s personal best, beating the “Map of the Soul: 7” record of 3.37 million set in 2020.

The band’s “BTS World Tour ‘Arirang’” is expected to kick off with a three-day concert at the Goyang Sports Complex Main Stadium in Gyeonggi on April 9, followed by more than 70 more performances throughout 2026.

BTS is stopping for four nights at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and two nights apiece at Tokyo Dome, MetLife Stadium in New Jersey and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Many of the shows have already sold out, meaning that the tour is undoubtedly en route to be one of the highest-grossing of all time. Multiple analysts in Korea have already made the projection that it has a chance of being the No. 1 highest-grossing tour of all-time, topping Taylor Swift’s current record.

“The ongoing ‘price correction’ on HYBE stock is an opportunity to buy, considering the world tour and BTS’s impact on HYBE’s financial records,” SK Securities Analyst Park said.

Hana Securities, Korea Investment Securities and Kyobo Securities also maintained their buy ratings.

“The band’s activities will soon go into full swing,” Shinhan Securities analyst Ji said. “Consequently, the stock price is expected to stabilize.”

BY CHO YONG-JUN [cho.yongjun1@joongang.co.kr]